GS110
FINAL
120MIL
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Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
4-1
110
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
3-1
120
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 118.6 – Milwaukee Bucks 121.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bucks won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
230

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
42%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 230.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
15% over85% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
26.6
Jimmy ButlerSF
20.0
Kristaps PorziņģisC
16.1
Brandin PodziemskiSG
13.8
De'Anthony MeltonPG
12.3
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
GS
119.00
13th / 30
Points
MIL
121.80
8th / 30
GS
41.50
20th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
41.20
T-22nd / 30
GS
28.17
9th / 30
Assists
MIL
26.60
T-11th / 30
GS
101.00
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
101.90
12th / 30
GS
57.14%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
59.95%
1st / 30
GS
14.62%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
12.19%
11th / 30
GS
23.17%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
18.96%
28th / 30
GS
.299
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.247
24th / 30
GS
117.82
10th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
119.52
8th / 30
GS
114.85
14th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
112.85
9th / 30
GS
+2.97
12th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
+6.67
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.36%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
51.13%3rd/30
16.502nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.316th/30
41.427th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.6611th/30
39.84%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.59%7th/30
23.4329th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.0512th/30
42.9029th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.0824th/30
54.62%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.41%3rd/30
21.4514th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.5028th/30
25.2518th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.3927th/30
84.97%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.48%29th/30
9.4123rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
7.8530th/30
31.6818th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.5816th/30
9.747th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4417th/30
3.9621st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.308th/30
16.3426th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.357th/30
19.975th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5719th/30
Opponent
48.78%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.19%8th/30
12.7114th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9517th/30
36.9617th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.7015th/30
34.38%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.29%14th/30
30.0320th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.6910th/30
50.6615th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.0316th/30
59.28%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.31%6th/30
16.674th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.6119th/30
20.462nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.5018th/30
81.45%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%12th/30
8.422nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5818th/30
31.1911th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5622nd/30
8.2514th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2413th/30
2.972nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.534th/30
14.5218th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1113th/30
19.474th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.825th/30
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