IND105
FINAL
107DAL
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Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
0-3
105
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
1-3
107
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 114.0 – Dallas Mavericks 115.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
47%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
IND
113.25
25th / 30
Points
DAL
107.80
28th / 30
IND
50.00
2nd / 30
Rebounds
DAL
43.40
17th / 30
IND
22.50
27th / 30
Assists
DAL
23.20
23rd / 30
IND
106.72
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
103.67
9th / 30
IND
47.31%
29th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
50.00%
27th / 30
IND
11.05%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
14.67%
28th / 30
IND
25.68%
17th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
18.86%
29th / 30
IND
.302
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.358
5th / 30
IND
106.12
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
103.98
30th / 30
IND
114.79
14th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
111.31
5th / 30
IND
-8.67
27th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
-7.33
24th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
40.41%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.55%25th/30
12.6517th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.8729th/30
39.369th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.7829th/30
32.14%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.94%T-26th/30
24.3627th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.3919th/30
52.2415th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.6311th/30
46.64%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.08%25th/30
19.4420th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.579th/30
27.6412th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.138th/30
70.34%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.48%17th/30
13.358th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.3027th/30
33.5014th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5712th/30
5.3930th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.3325th/30
4.9213th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0210th/30
12.885th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.2024th/30
26.7129th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.457th/30
Opponent
45.63%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.30%12th/30
9.372nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.613rd/30
30.695th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.646th/30
30.53%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.54%11th/30
28.5818th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.6428th/30
52.4819th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
59.6129th/30
54.46%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.07%9th/30
29.5230th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.203rd/30
36.7830th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.548th/30
80.25%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
68.85%1st/30
9.144th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1520th/30
38.6530th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.6926th/30
5.862nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4916th/30
3.989th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0221st/30
11.9529th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.1225th/30
23.6620th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.6924th/30
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