CLE105
FINAL
125BOS
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-1
105
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
1-3
125
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 113.8 – Boston Celtics 114.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Celtics won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
230

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
49%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 230.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jaylen BrownSF
28.7
Jayson TatumPF
21.8
Payton PritchardPG
17.0
Derrick WhiteSG
16.5
Neemias QuetaC
10.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
116.20
17th / 30
Points
BOS
114.20
T-20th / 30
CLE
40.40
25th / 30
Rebounds
BOS
44.80
14th / 30
CLE
25.20
T-17th / 30
Assists
BOS
21.20
28th / 30
CLE
101.35
16th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BOS
95.43
29th / 30
CLE
55.15%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BOS
53.39%
19th / 30
CLE
14.14%
22nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BOS
10.34%
2nd / 30
CLE
22.12%
24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BOS
29.49%
7th / 30
CLE
.344
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BOS
.228
30th / 30
CLE
114.65
18th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
119.67
10th / 30
CLE
113.66
11th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
112.33
7th / 30
CLE
+0.99
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BOS
+7.34
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.14%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.64%24th/30
15.197th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.772nd/30
42.435th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.721st/30
35.81%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.06%23rd/30
23.6828th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.9925th/30
41.8330th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.0628th/30
56.60%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.67%8th/30
21.7113th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.4026th/30
29.019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.8027th/30
74.83%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.81%13th/30
9.0825th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.417th/30
30.7821st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5313th/30
9.677th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.228th/30
3.7521st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.086th/30
15.9822nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.163rd/30
22.3016th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.5727th/30
Opponent
45.37%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.00%1st/30
15.3924th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2521st/30
41.2425th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.5927th/30
37.32%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.69%7th/30
24.273rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.221st/30
46.183rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.577th/30
52.56%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.70%2nd/30
18.949th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
25.1527th/30
24.0710th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.9726th/30
78.69%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.92%29th/30
12.2321st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.0930th/30
31.9716th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.0717th/30
10.2626th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.293rd/30
3.355th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.567th/30
16.384th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0914th/30
24.6722nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0111th/30
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