CHA117
FINAL
144MIA
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Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
2-1
117
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
2-1
144
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 106.9 – Miami Heat 116.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 75%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
261

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
25%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
20%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 261.

O/U LINE 210
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 230
36% over ✓64% under
O/U LINE 240
19% over ✓81% under
O/U LINE 250
8% over ✓92% under
O/U LINE 260
3% over ✓97% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.2
LaMelo BallPG
20.1
Kon KnueppelSF
18.5
Miles BridgesPF
17.1
Collin SextonSG
14.2
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHA
128.25
4th / 30
Points
MIA
131.50
1st / 30
CHA
47.00
10th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
47.75
9th / 30
CHA
29.75
T-3rd / 30
Assists
MIA
29.75
T-3rd / 30
CHA
104.39
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
106.92
3rd / 30
CHA
58.45%
6th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
59.41%
3rd / 30
CHA
12.66%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
13.13%
17th / 30
CHA
28.66%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
24.72%
18th / 30
CHA
.332
8th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.274
22nd / 30
CHA
122.85
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
122.99
5th / 30
CHA
119.50
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
108.26
4th / 30
CHA
+3.35
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
+14.73
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.31%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.81%5th/30
15.814th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.969th/30
38.568th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.7115th/30
40.99%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.76%4th/30
26.8222nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.239th/30
47.9023rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.2719th/30
56.00%T-12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.14%7th/30
21.7912th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6421st/30
28.749th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.8522nd/30
75.83%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.35%10th/30
11.2616th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.2919th/30
33.7711th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.378th/30
7.6623rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.129th/30
3.5922nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.5728th/30
14.3713th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7314th/30
20.367th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.874th/30
Opponent
47.79%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.36%4th/30
14.8525th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5618th/30
37.8421st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.6822nd/30
39.24%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.33%9th/30
26.5811th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.382nd/30
48.859th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.534th/30
54.41%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.25%5th/30
21.7921st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8117th/30
27.0619th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.0212th/30
80.53%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.18%26th/30
9.103rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.7614th/30
28.025th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.339th/30
7.428th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9510th/30
3.355th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.9710th/30
13.8920th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.678th/30
22.9916th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.942nd/30
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