MEM118
FINAL
131GS
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
2-1
118
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
2-1
131
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 114.6 – Golden State Warriors 116.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
249

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
44%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 249.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 240
33% over ✓67% under
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
19.7
Ja MorantPG
19.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
19.2
Dariq WhiteheadSF
16.3
Santi AldamaPF
14.0
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
26.6
Jimmy ButlerSF
20.0
Kristaps PorziņģisC
16.1
Brandin PodziemskiSG
13.8
De'Anthony MeltonPG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MEM
122.00
9th / 30
Points
GS
126.50
4th / 30
MEM
42.00
T-20th / 30
Rebounds
GS
40.75
24th / 30
MEM
28.00
9th / 30
Assists
GS
30.50
3rd / 30
MEM
105.21
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
103.96
9th / 30
MEM
52.36%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
59.41%
5th / 30
MEM
11.45%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
14.53%
T-26th / 30
MEM
20.59%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
22.89%
22nd / 30
MEM
.364
5th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.362
T-6th / 30
MEM
115.96
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
121.68
7th / 30
MEM
119.29
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
119.52
24th / 30
MEM
-3.33
20th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+2.16
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.28%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.12%9th/30
12.1219th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.831st/30
38.0210th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.406th/30
31.87%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
41.67%2nd/30
26.6124th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.3329th/30
47.5324th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.3630th/30
56.00%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.40%13th/30
26.382nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.536th/30
31.136th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.589th/30
84.73%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.93%8th/30
8.3230th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.1423rd/30
31.6018th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.0622nd/30
6.4228th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.626th/30
5.479th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.6123rd/30
12.834th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.1122nd/30
21.397th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.408th/30
Opponent
48.39%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
51.84%28th/30
14.7324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.5015th/30
35.6416th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.8713th/30
41.33%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.86%17th/30
28.0415th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.5025th/30
52.7523rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.0212th/30
53.15%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
62.98%29th/30
19.018th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.007th/30
25.1911th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.856th/30
75.47%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.16%25th/30
12.3620th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
7.452nd/30
32.0817th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.788th/30
8.0813th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6618th/30
4.2814th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.374th/30
14.7316th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1513th/30
23.7618th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.888th/30
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