TOR129
FINAL
139DAL
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Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
1-1
129
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
0-2
139
Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 112.9 – Dallas Mavericks 116.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
268

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
40%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 268.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 240
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 250
14% over ✓86% under
O/U LINE 260
6% over ✓94% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
TOR
127.67
T-3rd / 30
Points
DAL
112.67
24th / 30
TOR
46.00
T-13th / 30
Rebounds
DAL
44.67
T-15th / 30
TOR
31.33
3rd / 30
Assists
DAL
25.00
T-17th / 30
TOR
108.06
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
105.49
7th / 30
TOR
57.14%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
52.15%
18th / 30
TOR
13.37%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
16.13%
29th / 30
TOR
26.47%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
22.06%
25th / 30
TOR
.304
T-20th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.359
7th / 30
TOR
118.14
11th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
106.80
29th / 30
TOR
116.91
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
117.23
18th / 30
TOR
+1.23
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
-10.43
26th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.79%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.48%15th/30
9.2528th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.1629th/30
26.2229th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5930th/30
35.29%T-15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.80%14th/30
35.471st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4414th/30
60.153rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.307th/30
58.97%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.43%20th/30
19.4322nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.4313th/30
26.2221st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.0711th/30
74.12%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.17%17th/30
11.1014th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.4823rd/30
31.4619th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8615th/30
9.2513th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8516th/30
2.7826th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7414th/30
15.1115th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.0128th/30
24.6823rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8011th/30
Opponent
50.94%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.54%26th/30
10.495th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.388th/30
31.156th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.123rd/30
33.66%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.45%27th/30
31.1525th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.8627th/30
50.5917th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
59.4029th/30
61.59%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.32%16th/30
23.1322nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.385th/30
31.1524th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5912th/30
74.26%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
67.90%1st/30
10.4911th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.0615th/30
30.8510th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.4921st/30
8.6415th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.8025th/30
5.5525th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4219th/30
16.355th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5924th/30
22.8313th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.0117th/30
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