CHA121
FINAL
125PHI
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Charlotte Hornets vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
1-0
121
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
1-0
125
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 112.7 – Philadelphia 76ers 114.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ 76ers won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
246

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 246.

O/U LINE 210
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 240
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.2
LaMelo BallPG
20.1
Kon KnueppelSF
18.5
Miles BridgesPF
17.1
Collin SextonSG
14.2
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.3
Joel EmbiidC
26.9
Paul GeorgePF
17.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
16.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
14.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHA
128.50
3rd / 30
Points
PHI
121.00
T-11th / 30
CHA
47.50
T-12th / 30
Rebounds
PHI
40.00
T-23rd / 30
CHA
31.50
T-1st / 30
Assists
PHI
26.00
15th / 30
CHA
103.03
17th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHI
100.32
21st / 30
CHA
60.06%
5th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHI
56.40%
13th / 30
CHA
13.45%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHI
12.70%
12th / 30
CHA
32.93%
4th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHI
24.71%
15th / 30
CHA
.341
9th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHI
.360
6th / 30
CHA
124.73
3rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
120.62
8th / 30
CHA
117.45
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
118.13
21st / 30
CHA
+7.28
10th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHI
+2.49
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.84%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.51%16th/30
16.025th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.952nd/30
37.8513th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.879th/30
42.31%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.50%1st/30
28.1514th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.9328th/30
49.0219th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.8526th/30
57.43%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.00%T-23rd/30
20.3817th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.929th/30
29.608th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.906th/30
68.85%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.42%16th/30
13.108th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.4716th/30
33.0012th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.4123rd/30
5.3429th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.4827th/30
3.8818th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4914th/30
15.5316th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4511th/30
24.7523rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.9217th/30
Opponent
45.71%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.67%14th/30
15.5323rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4618th/30
38.3421st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.3725th/30
40.51%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.76%5th/30
23.304th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4119th/30
46.598th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.3511th/30
50.00%T-6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.00%25th/30
24.2723rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.9314th/30
32.0325th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.9114th/30
75.76%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%T-15th/30
11.1617th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4618th/30
26.691st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.9016th/30
8.7418th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.485th/30
3.8812th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.497th/30
15.5314th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.4627th/30
25.7223rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
26.9128th/30
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