OKC117
FINAL
100ATL
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
2-0
117
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
1-1
100
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 120.5 – Atlanta Hawks 113.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
70%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
127.67
4th / 30
Points
ATL
109.67
28th / 30
OKC
49.33
6th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
40.00
T-23rd / 30
OKC
22.33
25th / 30
Assists
ATL
25.33
16th / 30
OKC
109.08
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
102.64
19th / 30
OKC
51.54%
22nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
50.38%
24th / 30
OKC
9.98%
1st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
13.63%
16th / 30
OKC
23.97%
17th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
22.54%
21st / 30
OKC
.325
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.331
11th / 30
OKC
117.04
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
106.85
28th / 30
OKC
109.70
6th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
117.57
19th / 30
OKC
+7.33
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
-10.72
26th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.21%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.85%26th/30
11.3121st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0422nd/30
37.8912th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.4520th/30
29.84%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.01%22nd/30
29.0311th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.9822nd/30
51.3414th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9915th/30
56.55%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.96%21st/30
25.065th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.7612th/30
29.0310th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.9315th/30
86.32%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.91%14th/30
10.7014th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.3917th/30
34.539th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.5824th/30
9.4710th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.4722nd/30
2.7527th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2010th/30
11.311st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2614th/30
24.1420th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0814th/30
Opponent
43.21%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.38%26th/30
12.2213th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.423rd/30
36.9717th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.207th/30
33.06%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.18%4th/30
25.679th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
34.1030th/30
50.7318th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.1924th/30
50.60%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.69%28th/30
21.7019th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1116th/30
28.1118th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.6117th/30
77.17%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.47%13th/30
12.8324th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.6723rd/30
33.9222nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.7226th/30
5.814th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7424th/30
4.2816th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.255th/30
15.899th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.212nd/30
26.2826th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.6820th/30
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