CHI110
FINAL
98ORL
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Chicago Bulls vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
1-0
110
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
1-1
98
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 108.9 – Orlando Magic 114.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bulls won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
208

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 208.

O/U LINE 210
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
22.2
Franz WagnerSF
20.6
Desmond BaneSG
20.1
Anthony BlackPG
15.0
Jalen SuggsPG
13.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
112.50
23rd / 30
Points
ORL
110.00
27th / 30
CHI
48.00
T-9th / 30
Rebounds
ORL
48.00
T-9th / 30
CHI
27.50
T-9th / 30
Assists
ORL
18.67
29th / 30
CHI
103.35
16th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
104.84
10th / 30
CHI
52.06%
19th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
49.02%
28th / 30
CHI
15.10%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
15.91%
29th / 30
CHI
22.83%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
25.53%
14th / 30
CHI
.359
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.412
2nd / 30
CHI
108.85
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
104.92
29th / 30
CHI
101.11
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
108.73
5th / 30
CHI
+7.74
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
-3.82
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.88%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.31%23rd/30
10.1625th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
7.6330th/30
27.5827th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.0228th/30
36.84%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.24%30th/30
27.5816th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.3013th/30
54.678th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.059th/30
50.44%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.35%19th/30
23.2210th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
25.434th/30
29.519th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.382nd/30
78.69%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%18th/30
10.1619th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4512th/30
36.286th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.3410th/30
9.1912th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.3123rd/30
4.8412th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7713th/30
16.9325th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.1230th/30
23.7116th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5715th/30
Opponent
41.85%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.88%21st/30
4.841st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.544th/30
23.221st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.936th/30
20.83%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.97%8th/30
32.4126th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.8924th/30
65.7930th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.4122nd/30
49.26%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.95%17th/30
21.7720th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.3513th/30
28.5419th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.7113th/30
76.27%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%11th/30
13.5525th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.906th/30
34.3524th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.3821st/30
7.7412th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.8625th/30
7.2629th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.508th/30
14.5120th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.215th/30
26.1225th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.8417th/30
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