MIA146
FINAL
114MEM
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Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
0-1
146
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
1-0
114
Model expected score: Miami Heat 111.7 – Memphis Grizzlies 118.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Heat won by 32
COMBINED SCORE
260

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 260.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 240
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 250
15% over ✓85% under
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
19.7
Ja MorantPG
19.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
19.2
Dariq WhiteheadSF
16.3
Santi AldamaPF
14.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
133.50
3rd / 30
Points
MEM
121.00
T-11th / 30
MIA
52.00
T-3rd / 30
Rebounds
MEM
40.00
T-22nd / 30
MIA
30.00
T-5th / 30
Assists
MEM
24.50
T-16th / 30
MIA
110.13
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MEM
108.92
4th / 30
MIA
59.33%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MEM
52.00%
19th / 30
MIA
14.37%
22nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MEM
15.21%
28th / 30
MIA
29.03%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MEM
20.45%
22nd / 30
MIA
.254
23rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MEM
.406
3rd / 30
MIA
121.22
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
111.09
24th / 30
MIA
108.51
4th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
123.02
27th / 30
MIA
+12.71
3rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MEM
-11.94
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.30%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.14%T-20th/30
14.0713th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0219th/30
34.0519th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.6412th/30
41.33%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.27%28th/30
30.879th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.2525th/30
53.579th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.6928th/30
57.63%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
59.14%8th/30
17.2520th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
27.544th/30
22.2523rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.595th/30
77.55%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.51%5th/30
12.2611th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.2624th/30
34.968th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.4623rd/30
10.901st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.9726th/30
3.6323rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.344th/30
16.3422nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.9827th/30
24.0619th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0315th/30
Opponent
43.24%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.00%24th/30
11.3511th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3118th/30
34.0513th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.769th/30
33.33%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
43.28%27th/30
24.976th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.5925th/30
49.9417th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
61.0528th/30
50.00%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.38%10th/30
24.5226th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.9011th/30
28.6019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.3311th/30
85.71%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.58%10th/30
9.539th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.6129th/30
29.9610th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1317th/30
7.268th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.4829th/30
4.9919th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.6710th/30
15.898th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1518th/30
17.712nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.2520th/30
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