ATL111
FINAL
107ORL
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Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
0-1
111
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
1-0
107
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 110.7 – Orlando Magic 114.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hawks won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
22.2
Franz WagnerSF
20.6
Desmond BaneSG
20.1
Anthony BlackPG
15.0
Jalen SuggsPG
13.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
114.50
23rd / 30
Points
ORL
116.00
21st / 30
ATL
37.00
28th / 30
Rebounds
ORL
45.50
15th / 30
ATL
25.50
14th / 30
Assists
ORL
22.00
T-25th / 30
ATL
106.86
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
105.39
10th / 30
ATL
50.29%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
53.27%
18th / 30
ATL
13.21%
12th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
15.63%
29th / 30
ATL
18.48%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
23.60%
17th / 30
ATL
.371
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.429
2nd / 30
ATL
107.15
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
110.07
28th / 30
ATL
114.64
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
110.07
5th / 30
ATL
-7.49
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
+0.00
T-14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.14%T-20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.02%15th/30
8.4229th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.9625th/30
29.9523rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.9426th/30
28.13%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.43%T-19th/30
28.5413th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5217th/30
51.9413th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.7717th/30
54.95%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.21%17th/30
24.808th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
25.156th/30
30.4110th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.162nd/30
81.54%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.61%21st/30
7.9525th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.9617th/30
26.6729th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.2113th/30
7.4920th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.1222nd/30
5.1512th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7414th/30
14.5111th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.5529th/30
21.0610th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8213th/30
Opponent
52.60%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.30%21st/30
7.022nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.495th/30
26.204th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.368th/30
26.79%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.25%8th/30
35.5630th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.8424th/30
54.7524th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.1422nd/30
64.96%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.04%21st/30
22.4619th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.9315th/30
30.8824th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0914th/30
72.73%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.36%15th/30
11.2318th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.016th/30
35.0925th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2618th/30
7.9514th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5417th/30
3.287th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2716th/30
19.182nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6611th/30
26.6723rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2515th/30
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