LAC108
FINAL
129UTAH
← back to predictions

LA Clippers vs Utah Jazz — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
0-0
108
VS
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
0-0
129
Model expected score: LA Clippers 118.0 – Utah Jazz 110.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Clippers 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Jazz won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Utah Jazz (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
72%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 240
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kawhi LeonardSF
27.9
James HardenPG
25.4
Darius GarlandPG
19.9
Ivica ZubacC
14.4
John CollinsPF
13.6
UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
LAC
108.00
27th / 28
Points
UTAH
129.00
4th / 28
LAC
38.00
T-22nd / 28
Rebounds
UTAH
46.00
T-11th / 28
LAC
28.00
9th / 28
Assists
UTAH
38.00
1st / 28
LAC
93.47
T-27th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
UTAH
93.47
T-27th / 28
LAC
52.27%
T-17th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
UTAH
64.94%
1st / 28
LAC
13.36%
17th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
UTAH
11.13%
7th / 28
LAC
31.25%
7th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
UTAH
36.11%
3rd / 28
LAC
.239
24th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
UTAH
.230
25th / 28
LAC
115.54
12th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
138.01
1st / 28
LAC
138.01
28th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
115.54
17th / 28
LAC
-22.47
27th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
UTAH
+22.47
2nd / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
44.32%T-22nd/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
55.17%3rd/28
14.988th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
18.192nd/28
48.141st/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.073rd/28
31.11%18th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.64%11th/28
26.7519th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
33.167th/28
46.00T-19th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.00T-19th/28
58.14%9th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
72.09%2nd/28
17.12T-22nd/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.12T-22nd/28
22.4723rd/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.4025th/28
76.19%18th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.00%T-12th/28
16.052nd/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.915th/28
24.6126th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.307th/28
8.5610th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.771st/28
6.42T-8th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.42T-8th/28
16.0521st/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.848th/28
22.47T-9th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.47T-9th/28
Opponent
55.17%26th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.32%T-6th/28
18.1927th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.9821st/28
47.0726th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.1428th/28
38.64%18th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.11%11th/28
33.1622nd/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.7510th/28
46.00T-9th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.00T-9th/28
72.09%27th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.14%20th/28
17.12T-6th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.12T-6th/28
21.404th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.476th/28
80.00%T-16th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%11th/28
13.9124th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.0527th/28
35.3022nd/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
24.613rd/28
11.7728th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5619th/28
6.42T-20th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.42T-20th/28
12.8421st/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.058th/28
22.47T-9th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.47T-9th/28
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service