DAL119
FINAL
129LAL
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Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
6-13
119
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
13-4
129
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 110.7 – Los Angeles Lakers 121.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 84%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
248

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 248.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 240
34% over ✓66% under
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
33.5
Austin ReavesSG
23.3
LeBron JamesSF
20.9
Deandre AytonC
12.5
Rui HachimuraPF
11.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
110.00
29th / 30
Points
LAL
118.89
11th / 30
DAL
45.15
12th / 30
Rebounds
LAL
40.78
26th / 30
DAL
24.05
27th / 30
Assists
LAL
26.06
15th / 30
DAL
102.71
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
98.97
25th / 30
DAL
50.80%
29th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
58.36%
1st / 30
DAL
13.86%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
13.98%
28th / 30
DAL
22.83%
25th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
24.89%
20th / 30
DAL
.309
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.348
2nd / 30
DAL
107.10
30th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
120.12
6th / 30
DAL
113.09
5th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
116.25
16th / 30
DAL
-5.99
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+3.87
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.35%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
51.45%1st/30
11.0529th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.5125th/30
34.1322nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.9525th/30
32.38%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.92%21st/30
26.9723rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.325th/30
51.6013th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.2922nd/30
52.26%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
62.28%1st/30
20.0118th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.962nd/30
26.5310th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.962nd/30
75.41%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.26%15th/30
10.3720th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.4927th/30
33.597th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.7122nd/30
7.9821st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.218th/30
6.043rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.4829th/30
15.6826th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6024th/30
20.9311th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.386th/30
Opponent
45.77%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.73%23rd/30
10.952nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8619th/30
33.302nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.3922nd/30
32.89%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.11%16th/30
30.3824th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.1212th/30
57.0129th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.567th/30
53.29%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.74%25th/30
19.4714th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.417th/30
26.1422nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.903rd/30
74.49%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.39%25th/30
12.5127th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.957th/30
35.0529th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.632nd/30
9.2524th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.4325th/30
5.0119th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.651st/30
13.1025th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.834th/30
22.2019th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.5228th/30
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