PHI115
FINAL
103BKN
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
9-8
115
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
3-14
103
Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 118.0 – Brooklyn Nets 116.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ 76ers won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
53%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.3
Joel EmbiidC
26.9
Paul GeorgePF
17.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
16.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
14.1
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
24.2
Cam ThomasSG
15.6
Noah ClowneyPF
12.3
Nic ClaxtonC
11.7
Egor DëminPG
10.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
117.28
17th / 30
Points
BKN
108.89
30th / 30
PHI
44.06
18th / 30
Rebounds
BKN
39.44
30th / 30
PHI
25.89
17th / 30
Assists
BKN
24.39
26th / 30
PHI
100.45
12th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BKN
96.72
29th / 30
PHI
53.90%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BKN
51.79%
26th / 30
PHI
12.60%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BKN
12.94%
20th / 30
PHI
27.30%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BKN
25.31%
18th / 30
PHI
.282
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BKN
.310
5th / 30
PHI
116.75
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
112.58
25th / 30
PHI
117.02
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
123.49
29th / 30
PHI
-0.28
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BKN
-10.91
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.38%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.77%29th/30
13.4414th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.138th/30
36.3418th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.454th/30
36.99%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.29%27th/30
28.0416th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.4129th/30
53.0910th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.6129th/30
52.81%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.53%22nd/30
20.3514th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.376th/30
25.2214th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.284th/30
80.70%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.32%17th/30
12.0012th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7216th/30
31.8618th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.0630th/30
7.6323rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.0627th/30
6.421st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8526th/30
14.4916th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.8821st/30
21.0213th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7119th/30
Opponent
46.93%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.23%28th/30
13.1112th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0722nd/30
37.3316th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.1911th/30
35.11%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.89%28th/30
29.5922nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.7326th/30
53.6525th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.0119th/30
55.15%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.96%28th/30
18.538th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.8218th/30
23.737th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5019th/30
78.09%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.70%6th/30
11.6716th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2013th/30
31.9713th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.5826th/30
7.966th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6219th/30
4.8116th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7115th/30
13.3821st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.3822nd/30
21.1813th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.4327th/30
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