PHX112
FINAL
100SAC
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Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
11-7
112
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
5-13
100
Model expected score: Phoenix Suns 120.8 – Sacramento Kings 114.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Suns won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
68%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
26.1
Dillon BrooksSF
20.2
Jalen GreenSG
17.8
Grayson AllenSG
16.5
Collin GillespiePG
12.7
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSG
19.2
DeMar DeRozanPF
18.4
Domantas SabonisC
15.8
Russell WestbrookSF
15.2
Keegan MurrayPF
14.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHX
116.79
18th / 30
Points
SAC
111.63
26th / 30
PHX
43.58
19th / 30
Rebounds
SAC
39.74
29th / 30
PHX
25.89
19th / 30
Assists
SAC
25.95
18th / 30
PHX
98.80
26th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SAC
101.28
8th / 30
PHX
55.34%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SAC
52.97%
23rd / 30
PHX
13.72%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SAC
12.38%
12th / 30
PHX
30.68%
4th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SAC
20.22%
29th / 30
PHX
.245
27th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SAC
.259
24th / 30
PHX
118.21
12th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
110.22
28th / 30
PHX
114.00
10th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
121.50
24th / 30
PHX
+4.21
12th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SAC
-11.28
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.92%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.67%17th/30
15.296th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0229th/30
40.388th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.7630th/30
37.86%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.81%17th/30
27.2721st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.838th/30
50.3422nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.753rd/30
54.18%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.56%23rd/30
17.7925th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.5127th/30
22.2727th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.6625th/30
79.90%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.29%22nd/30
13.377th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.7829th/30
30.7426th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.4527th/30
10.921st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5216th/30
4.5817th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.3330th/30
15.9829th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7710th/30
23.2828th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.215th/30
Opponent
46.42%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.85%27th/30
12.315th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4115th/30
36.1711th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9919th/30
34.02%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.29%9th/30
28.4516th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.9227th/30
51.6215th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9312th/30
55.11%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.71%29th/30
20.1921st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4414th/30
25.2018th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.2211th/30
80.13%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.26%24th/30
12.3125th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.029th/30
30.207th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.6628th/30
9.5926th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5218th/30
4.6315th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8317th/30
16.732nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.8220th/30
20.198th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.594th/30
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