MIL103
FINAL
106MIA
← back to predictions

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
8-10
103
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
12-6
106
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 115.8 – Miami Heat 125.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
209

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
24%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 209.

O/U LINE 210
95% over5% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
87% over13% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
73% over27% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
17% over83% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
115.79
19th / 30
Points
MIA
122.95
2nd / 30
MIL
40.00
28th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
46.42
4th / 30
MIL
27.00
11th / 30
Assists
MIA
30.26
2nd / 30
MIL
100.28
14th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
105.19
1st / 30
MIL
57.65%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
54.97%
13th / 30
MIL
12.50%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
11.80%
7th / 30
MIL
19.34%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
23.15%
25th / 30
MIL
.228
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.278
20th / 30
MIL
115.46
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
116.88
15th / 30
MIL
118.30
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
111.38
2nd / 30
MIL
-2.83
20th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
+5.50
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.92%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.94%11th/30
15.325th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4622nd/30
37.5214th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.8724th/30
40.84%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.78%12th/30
27.6617th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.026th/30
50.3323rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.747th/30
54.95%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.84%15th/30
14.1730th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4620th/30
20.0029th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6719th/30
70.87%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.90%16th/30
8.2930th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.0123rd/30
31.5923rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.125th/30
7.9820th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5615th/30
4.4621st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1524th/30
13.8011th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.316th/30
22.2024th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.312nd/30
Opponent
47.62%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.07%2nd/30
13.0713th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4616th/30
36.6912th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.4330th/30
35.62%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.72%1st/30
28.5017th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.326th/30
50.5911th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.938th/30
56.33%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.71%7th/30
22.1027th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.367th/30
27.9727th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.924th/30
78.99%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.13%20th/30
11.0710th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.8629th/30
34.5925th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.2220th/30
8.5520th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2611th/30
4.4612th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2022nd/30
13.8618th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3616th/30
18.892nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.2610th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service