OKC144
FINAL
112UTAH
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
15-1
144
VS
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
5-9
112
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 124.1 – Utah Jazz 113.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 32
COMBINED SCORE
256

Margin of Victory — Utah Jazz (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
77%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
7%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 256.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 230
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4
UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
122.65
4th / 30
Points
UTAH
118.93
13th / 30
OKC
45.29
12th / 30
Rebounds
UTAH
46.67
T-5th / 30
OKC
26.18
16th / 30
Assists
UTAH
29.60
5th / 30
OKC
100.99
11th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
UTAH
102.96
5th / 30
OKC
56.28%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
UTAH
52.72%
24th / 30
OKC
10.98%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
UTAH
14.31%
27th / 30
OKC
23.33%
24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
UTAH
30.44%
6th / 30
OKC
.270
22nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
UTAH
.313
4th / 30
OKC
121.44
3rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
115.51
21st / 30
OKC
105.25
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
UTAH
122.50
26th / 30
OKC
+16.19
1st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
UTAH
-6.99
25th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.54%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.07%24th/30
13.8611th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4714th/30
38.6811th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.959th/30
35.84%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.71%26th/30
29.597th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.1626th/30
50.8517th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.9827th/30
58.19%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.52%16th/30
20.6812th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.793rd/30
24.1721st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.526th/30
85.54%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.82%4th/30
9.7925th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.408th/30
35.062nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.9218th/30
10.831st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8323rd/30
5.429th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.5627th/30
12.352nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.7030th/30
20.567th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4721st/30
Opponent
42.60%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.94%26th/30
13.9820th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.5430th/30
37.5719th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.8628th/30
37.21%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.03%25th/30
22.541st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9712th/30
48.174th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.043rd/30
46.80%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.22%26th/30
18.235th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.9419th/30
23.427th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6713th/30
77.86%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.84%28th/30
10.727th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.496th/30
32.1514th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.639th/30
7.754th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7825th/30
3.671st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6326th/30
17.181st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.3423rd/30
22.3718th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.6621st/30
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