DEN112
FINAL
109HOU
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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
11-3
112
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
10-3
109
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 118.7 – Houston Rockets 121.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
221

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
42%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 221.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 230
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
15% over85% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantSF
26.0
Alperen ŞengünC
20.4
Amen ThompsonPG
18.3
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
15.8
Reed SheppardSG
13.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
123.80
2nd / 30
Points
HOU
122.86
3rd / 30
DEN
46.67
T-5th / 30
Rebounds
HOU
49.64
1st / 30
DEN
29.13
6th / 30
Assists
HOU
25.29
22nd / 30
DEN
99.23
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
HOU
97.94
27th / 30
DEN
57.63%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
HOU
55.43%
12th / 30
DEN
11.53%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
HOU
12.35%
11th / 30
DEN
28.13%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
HOU
38.50%
1st / 30
DEN
.307
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
HOU
.299
10th / 30
DEN
124.76
2nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
125.44
1st / 30
DEN
113.68
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
114.86
14th / 30
DEN
+11.09
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
HOU
+10.57
3rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.76%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.48%9th/30
12.1623rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9820th/30
33.1924th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.9229th/30
36.64%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
41.98%1st/30
32.791st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.233rd/30
55.366th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
62.351st/30
59.22%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.70%28th/30
22.714th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.025th/30
27.218th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.933rd/30
83.46%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.85%15th/30
11.4913th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.851st/30
35.541st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.846th/30
8.0621st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.419th/30
3.9624th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0314th/30
13.104th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.8819th/30
20.093rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.2215th/30
Opponent
44.93%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.77%9th/30
12.235th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2224th/30
38.5622nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.6027th/30
31.71%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.91%17th/30
28.8919th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.209th/30
52.9425th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9012th/30
54.57%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.44%11th/30
19.229th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.793rd/30
24.8616th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.4312th/30
77.30%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.84%1st/30
12.0320th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8118th/30
29.363rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
26.911st/30
8.006th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5317th/30
4.5713th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2524th/30
12.7728th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7819th/30
22.5120th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0524th/30
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