MIA143
FINAL
107CHI
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Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
9-6
143
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
8-6
107
Model expected score: Miami Heat 122.7 – Chicago Bulls 123.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bulls 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Heat won by 36
COMBINED SCORE
250

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
48%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 250.

O/U LINE 210
97% over ✓3% under
O/U LINE 220
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 230
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 240
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 250 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
24% over76% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
124.81
1st / 30
Points
CHI
120.73
8th / 30
MIA
45.25
13th / 30
Rebounds
CHI
46.73
4th / 30
MIA
30.56
1st / 30
Assists
CHI
29.93
4th / 30
MIA
105.94
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHI
103.98
3rd / 30
MIA
55.66%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHI
55.63%
11th / 30
MIA
11.87%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHI
12.74%
16th / 30
MIA
22.08%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHI
23.46%
23rd / 30
MIA
.280
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHI
.265
25th / 30
MIA
117.82
15th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
116.11
20th / 30
MIA
112.33
4th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHI
118.55
21st / 30
MIA
+5.49
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHI
-2.44
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.19%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.59%12th/30
13.1618th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.119th/30
34.3421st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.6117th/30
38.32%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.53%3rd/30
29.328th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.6318th/30
53.818th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1015th/30
54.50%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.08%18th/30
19.7121st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.5325th/30
24.7220th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.2125th/30
79.71%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.83%11th/30
9.3828th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.0022nd/30
33.338th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.943rd/30
8.6715th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.7624th/30
3.9525th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.585th/30
13.335th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3013th/30
20.244th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.2916th/30
Opponent
43.25%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.86%16th/30
13.5117th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.256th/30
42.7730th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.494th/30
31.59%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.50%12th/30
26.206th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.7828th/30
49.037th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.3230th/30
53.43%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.69%13th/30
19.4113th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.2620th/30
24.139th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8418th/30
80.44%23rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.41%11th/30
13.9229th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1222nd/30
33.1018th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6316th/30
8.4415th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7822nd/30
5.2523rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5825th/30
14.4016th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.5429th/30
20.6511th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.945th/30
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