WSH110
FINAL
140TOR
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Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
1-13
110
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
10-5
140
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 112.6 – Toronto Raptors 129.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 92%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 30
COMBINED SCORE
250

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
12%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
38%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 250.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 230
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 250
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
17% over83% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
112.47
24th / 30
Points
TOR
121.13
T-5th / 30
WSH
42.87
21st / 30
Rebounds
TOR
42.13
23rd / 30
WSH
25.27
23rd / 30
Assists
TOR
30.44
T-2nd / 30
WSH
102.97
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
100.17
19th / 30
WSH
53.36%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
57.42%
5th / 30
WSH
14.32%
28th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
11.86%
7th / 30
WSH
22.59%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
24.17%
21st / 30
WSH
.237
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.295
11th / 30
WSH
109.22
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
120.92
5th / 30
WSH
125.93
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
114.43
11th / 30
WSH
-16.70
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+6.49
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.94%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
50.50%3rd/30
13.0119th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.1722nd/30
35.1620th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.2027th/30
37.02%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.79%7th/30
27.2620th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.204th/30
52.5111th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.665th/30
51.91%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.85%5th/30
15.6728th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.0317th/30
20.7829th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9614th/30
75.39%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.16%22nd/30
10.1621st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.9823rd/30
31.4722nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.0716th/30
6.4729th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8612th/30
5.448th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3722nd/30
16.1928th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.356th/30
23.0526th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5924th/30
Opponent
48.46%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.23%11th/30
14.1822nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.864th/30
37.3617th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8814th/30
37.95%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.15%3rd/30
30.5626th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.3313th/30
54.9727th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.0410th/30
55.59%19th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.61%23rd/30
22.2725th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.2124th/30
28.3627th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.6425th/30
78.54%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.36%22nd/30
14.1130th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9819th/30
34.8327th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.3212th/30
11.2730th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.178th/30
5.8328th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.7427th/30
11.3930th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2912th/30
17.611st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.479th/30
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