POR116
FINAL
140HOU
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Portland Trail Blazers vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
6-5
116
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
7-3
140
Model expected score: Portland Trail Blazers 116.6 – Houston Rockets 124.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 24
COMBINED SCORE
256

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
19%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 256.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 230
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 250
33% over ✓67% under
O/U LINE 260
17% over83% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
24.2
Shaedon SharpeSG
20.8
Jerami GrantPF
18.6
Jrue HolidayPG
16.3
Scoot HendersonPG
14.2
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantSF
26.0
Alperen ŞengünC
20.4
Amen ThompsonPG
18.3
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
15.8
Reed SheppardSG
13.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
POR
120.58
8th / 30
Points
HOU
125.45
1st / 30
POR
42.92
20th / 30
Rebounds
HOU
49.36
1st / 30
POR
25.42
23rd / 30
Assists
HOU
26.45
17th / 30
POR
102.02
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
HOU
98.51
26th / 30
POR
53.34%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
HOU
57.18%
4th / 30
POR
13.13%
19th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
HOU
12.60%
16th / 30
POR
30.38%
5th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
HOU
38.53%
1st / 30
POR
.290
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
HOU
.308
5th / 30
POR
118.20
15th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
127.35
1st / 30
POR
118.44
21st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
114.98
11th / 30
POR
-0.25
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
HOU
+12.37
3rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.81%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.80%5th/30
13.6412th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5713th/30
40.607th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.7428th/30
33.60%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.73%1st/30
27.8517th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.212nd/30
49.9921st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
60.171st/30
55.72%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.53%20th/30
21.567th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.244th/30
26.3013th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.332nd/30
81.99%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.50%19th/30
13.728th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.431st/30
28.3429th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.688th/30
9.3910th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.975th/30
4.2521st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.4412th/30
15.4420th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0419th/30
22.7122nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.585th/30
Opponent
48.72%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.72%9th/30
11.352nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7627th/30
32.352nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.4227th/30
35.10%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.53%20th/30
30.4725th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.139th/30
53.5026th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.2215th/30
56.95%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.97%7th/30
23.4428th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.431st/30
27.9425th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.333rd/30
83.92%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.55%1st/30
11.9317th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1820th/30
31.4511th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
26.211st/30
10.2128th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6720th/30
5.7224th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7117th/30
16.344th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3016th/30
22.7921st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6229th/30
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