CLE148
FINAL
115WSH
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
5-3
148
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
1-7
115
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 123.0 – Washington Wizards 113.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 33
COMBINED SCORE
263

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
74%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 263.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
44% over ✓56% under
O/U LINE 250
25% over ✓75% under
O/U LINE 260
11% over ✓89% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
119.89
8th / 30
Points
WSH
112.22
24th / 30
CLE
42.11
25th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
45.67
10th / 30
CLE
27.44
7th / 30
Assists
WSH
26.56
T-14th / 30
CLE
101.21
12th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
104.42
2nd / 30
CLE
54.96%
15th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
53.05%
21st / 30
CLE
12.72%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
14.69%
29th / 30
CLE
27.05%
15th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
23.15%
25th / 30
CLE
.289
17th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.238
28th / 30
CLE
118.46
11th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
107.47
28th / 30
CLE
113.41
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
124.82
29th / 30
CLE
+5.05
8th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-17.34
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.83%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.61%21st/30
16.362nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9816th/30
44.682nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.5819th/30
36.61%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.54%10th/30
24.7029th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.8219th/30
44.9029th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6711th/30
55.01%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.91%28th/30
19.9817th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.9029th/30
25.9116th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.7529th/30
77.12%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
71.79%29th/30
11.9715th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.6419th/30
29.6426th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0912th/30
10.432nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.8530th/30
5.0513th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.645th/30
14.7116th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.6028th/30
21.4113th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5621st/30
Opponent
46.62%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.33%23rd/30
13.6120th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7926th/30
36.6715th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.3724th/30
37.13%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.57%25th/30
26.469th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.7922nd/30
49.299th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.8922nd/30
53.67%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.34%21st/30
19.6514th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8622nd/30
25.6919th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.6418th/30
76.50%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.33%25th/30
12.1916th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2418th/30
32.2815th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.3327th/30
9.2223rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.2829th/30
3.626th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0726th/30
17.462nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
10.8530th/30
23.1620th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
17.661st/30
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