DEN107
FINAL
109POR
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Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
3-1
107
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
3-2
109
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 124.2 – Portland Trail Blazers 120.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Blazers won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
61%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
96% over ✓4% under
O/U LINE 220
90% over10% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
59% over41% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
38% over62% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
21% over79% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
24.2
Shaedon SharpeSG
20.8
Jerami GrantPF
18.6
Jrue HolidayPG
16.3
Scoot HendersonPG
14.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
124.00
T-4th / 30
Points
POR
121.17
8th / 30
DEN
46.80
T-9th / 30
Rebounds
POR
41.67
21st / 30
DEN
29.20
4th / 30
Assists
POR
27.17
10th / 30
DEN
99.98
21st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
POR
103.60
6th / 30
DEN
58.49%
2nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
POR
52.04%
24th / 30
DEN
12.62%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
POR
12.95%
14th / 30
DEN
27.42%
15th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
POR
29.68%
7th / 30
DEN
.289
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
POR
.296
17th / 30
DEN
124.02
2nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
116.95
15th / 30
DEN
111.82
5th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
112.61
7th / 30
DEN
+12.20
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
POR
+4.34
9th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.83%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.42%26th/30
11.6023rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8412th/30
32.8121st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.867th/30
35.37%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.86%21st/30
33.611st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.5421st/30
54.417th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.0319th/30
61.76%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.05%22nd/30
22.0012th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.368th/30
25.2019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.8712th/30
87.30%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.23%7th/30
10.2020th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.518th/30
36.612nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
26.7030th/30
7.8019th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.581st/30
4.0023rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6716th/30
14.2012th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2818th/30
22.6021st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5219th/30
Opponent
44.20%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.48%21st/30
12.6012th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.784th/30
40.4123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.921st/30
31.19%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.02%15th/30
27.0111th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8317th/30
49.219th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.7113th/30
54.88%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.99%20th/30
20.0016th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.6128th/30
27.2120th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.6025th/30
73.53%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.15%28th/30
11.6017th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.7810th/30
27.012nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.0113th/30
9.2020th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6525th/30
4.8019th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.4329th/30
13.2023rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
20.271st/30
21.209th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8417th/30
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