HOU124
FINAL
125OKC
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Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
0-0
124
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
0-0
125
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 111.0 – Oklahoma City Thunder 116.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
249

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
34%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 249.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantSF
26.0
Alperen ŞengünC
20.4
Amen ThompsonPG
18.3
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
15.8
Reed SheppardSG
13.5
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 4 teams
HOU
124.00
2nd / 4
Points
OKC
125.00
1st / 4
HOU
52.00
1st / 4
Rebounds
OKC
38.00
4th / 4
HOU
23.00
T-3rd / 4
Assists
OKC
29.00
T-1st / 4
HOU
110.19
T-1st / 4
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
OKC
110.19
T-1st / 4
HOU
50.00%
4th / 4
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
OKC
50.48%
3rd / 4
HOU
16.59%
3rd / 4
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
OKC
8.73%
1st / 4
HOU
37.21%
1st / 4
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
OKC
23.40%
2nd / 4
HOU
.320
3rd / 4
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
OKC
.240
4th / 4
HOU
112.54
3rd / 4
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
113.44
2nd / 4
HOU
113.44
3rd / 4
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
112.54
2nd / 4
HOU
-0.91
3rd / 4
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
OKC
+0.91
2nd / 4

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 4 teams.

Team
44.33%3rd/4
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.23%4th/4
9.983rd/4
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.802nd/4
35.393rd/4
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.191st/4
28.21%2nd/4
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
25.00%T-3rd/4
29.043rd/4
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.952nd/4
52.641st/4
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.192nd/4
55.17%4th/4
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
63.46%2nd/4
24.502nd/4
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.153rd/4
28.133rd/4
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.694th/4
87.10%2nd/4
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.00%3rd/4
14.521st/4
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.982nd/4
32.671st/4
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
24.504th/4
5.454th/4
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.891st/4
4.541st/4
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.633rd/4
19.974th/4
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
9.981st/4
23.602nd/4
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.503rd/4
Opponent
44.23%1st/4
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.33%2nd/4
11.803rd/4
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.982nd/4
47.194th/4
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.392nd/4
25.00%T-1st/4
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.21%3rd/4
29.953rd/4
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.042nd/4
47.193rd/4
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.644th/4
63.46%3rd/4
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.17%1st/4
18.152nd/4
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.503rd/4
22.691st/4
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.132nd/4
80.00%2nd/4
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
87.10%3rd/4
9.983rd/4
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.524th/4
24.501st/4
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.674th/4
10.894th/4
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.451st/4
3.632nd/4
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.544th/4
9.984th/4
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.971st/4
24.503rd/4
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.602nd/4
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