MIN138
FINAL
142DEN
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
20-10
138
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
21-8
142
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 116.9 – Denver Nuggets 122.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
280

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
35%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 280.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 250
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 260
14% over ✓86% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
28.8
Julius RandlePF
21.1
Jaden McDanielsPF
14.8
Ayo DosunmuSG
14.4
Donte DiVincenzoSG
12.2
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIN
119.13
11th / 30
Points
DEN
125.80
1st / 30
MIN
44.39
15th / 30
Rebounds
DEN
44.10
17th / 30
MIN
26.48
13th / 30
Assists
DEN
29.83
3rd / 30
MIN
100.59
13th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
99.59
19th / 30
MIN
55.57%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
59.34%
1st / 30
MIN
12.15%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
11.31%
3rd / 30
MIN
26.07%
14th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
25.49%
18th / 30
MIN
.307
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.285
13th / 30
MIN
118.44
10th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
126.32
1st / 30
MIN
113.72
6th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
117.72
21st / 30
MIN
+4.71
8th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
+8.60
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.67%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
51.30%1st/30
13.9210th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.299th/30
38.0011th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.0421st/30
36.62%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.78%1st/30
28.0619th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.303rd/30
50.0622nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.829th/30
56.05%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.15%2nd/30
20.568th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.857th/30
27.046th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.3011th/30
76.04%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.41%3rd/30
11.3218th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.3821st/30
32.8113th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.914th/30
8.5313th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.3026th/30
5.328th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8528th/30
13.8212th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.753rd/30
22.2625th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.353rd/30
Opponent
45.55%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.08%16th/30
12.096th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1215th/30
34.285th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8219th/30
35.27%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.69%8th/30
28.5711th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.8221st/30
55.0027th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.3918th/30
51.95%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.86%23rd/30
20.3022nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7113th/30
25.8824th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.7010th/30
78.44%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.95%15th/30
11.6416th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.1810th/30
32.1011th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.324th/30
7.798th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.839th/30
4.013rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5915th/30
14.1415th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.1829th/30
22.0325th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7922nd/30
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