OKC141
FINAL
135IND
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
1-0
141
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
0-0
135
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 116.8 – Indiana Pacers 112.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
276

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 276.

O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 240
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 250
14% over ✓86% under
O/U LINE 260
6% over ✓94% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
133.00
T-4th / 30
Points
IND
135.00
3rd / 30
OKC
49.00
9th / 30
Rebounds
IND
55.00
2nd / 30
OKC
23.00
T-16th / 30
Assists
IND
21.00
T-24th / 30
OKC
116.54
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
121.88
1st / 30
OKC
50.50%
24th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
50.00%
T-25th / 30
OKC
9.71%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
10.25%
5th / 30
OKC
20.00%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
17.74%
24th / 30
OKC
.382
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.381
8th / 30
OKC
114.12
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
110.77
24th / 30
OKC
111.12
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
115.69
17th / 30
OKC
+3.00
13th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-4.92
21st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.72%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.81%26th/30
9.8721st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.6718th/30
37.3313th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.2815th/30
26.44%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.23%21st/30
28.3215th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.0820th/30
48.0520th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.8717th/30
58.93%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.23%17th/30
27.894th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.628th/30
32.616th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.825th/30
85.53%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.00%20th/30
8.5822nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.0318th/30
33.4613th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.107th/30
7.7214th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
4.9226th/30
2.5729th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.2825th/30
10.733rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.495th/30
25.7421st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
30.3630th/30
Opponent
44.06%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.26%12th/30
10.3010th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.214th/30
35.1817th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.729th/30
29.27%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.57%T-4th/30
27.8915th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.0811th/30
51.4817th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.2313th/30
54.17%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.00%16th/30
24.4522nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
36.9230th/30
30.4621st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.8530th/30
80.28%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
88.24%28th/30
11.5822nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
7.387th/30
34.3221st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
41.8530th/30
5.157th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
4.925th/30
3.8612th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
1.641st/30
15.4511th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.4925th/30
27.0322nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
27.0823rd/30
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