SA125
FINAL
92DAL
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San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
0-0
125
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
0-0
92
Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 111.8 – Dallas Mavericks 117.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Spurs won by 33
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
36%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
SA
125.00
T-6th / 28
Points
DAL
92.00
28th / 28
SA
50.00
T-5th / 28
Rebounds
DAL
37.00
T-25th / 28
SA
24.00
T-14th / 28
Assists
DAL
20.00
T-25th / 28
SA
100.00
T-21st / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
100.00
T-21st / 28
SA
62.07%
3rd / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
42.77%
28th / 28
SA
12.35%
11th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
14.49%
22nd / 28
SA
28.21%
8th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
18.75%
22nd / 28
SA
.322
12th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.313
15th / 28
SA
125.00
4th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
92.00
28th / 28
SA
92.00
1st / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
125.00
25th / 28
SA
+33.00
1st / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
-33.00
28th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
57.47%1st/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
37.35%28th/28
8.0026th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.0022nd/28
20.0028th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.0027th/28
40.00%T-8th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.86%3rd/28
42.002nd/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.0025th/28
67.003rd/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
62.006th/28
62.69%6th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.48%28th/28
17.0024th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.0014th/28
28.0014th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0018th/28
60.71%T-25th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.77%11th/28
11.0011th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.0019th/28
39.002nd/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.0022nd/28
10.004th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.0024th/28
5.0012th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.0025th/28
14.0012th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.0019th/28
24.00T-15th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.00T-15th/28
Opponent
37.35%1st/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
57.47%28th/28
9.007th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.003rd/28
21.002nd/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.001st/28
42.86%26th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.00%T-20th/28
22.004th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
42.0027th/28
62.0023rd/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
67.0026th/28
35.48%1st/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
62.69%23rd/28
21.0015th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.005th/28
26.0011th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.0015th/28
80.77%18th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
60.71%T-3rd/28
9.0010th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.0018th/28
28.007th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
39.0027th/28
5.005th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.0025th/28
3.004th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0017th/28
16.0010th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0017th/28
24.00T-15th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.00T-15th/28
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