DEN130
FINAL
129SAC
← back to predictions

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
13-10
130
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
13-13
129
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 116.1 – Sacramento Kings 120.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Kings 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
259

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
40%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 259.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 230
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 250
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
De'Aaron FoxPG
25.0
Zach LaVineSG
22.4
DeMar DeRozanSF
22.2
Domantas SabonisC
19.1
Malik MonkSG
17.2
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service