MEM110
FINAL
116LAL
← back to predictions

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
18-8
110
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
13-12
116
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 119.9 – Los Angeles Lakers 113.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Quinten PostOut
  • Richie SaundersOut
LAL
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Lakers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
226

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
67%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 226.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service