LAC98
FINAL
120DEN
← back to predictions

LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
14-11
98
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
12-10
120
Model expected score: LA Clippers 111.9 – Denver Nuggets 115.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 22
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
James HardenPG
22.8
Norman PowellSG
21.8
Kawhi LeonardSF
21.5
Ivica ZubacC
16.8
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
10.1
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service