WSH105
FINAL
115CLE
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Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
3-19
105
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
21-4
115
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 107.3 – Cleveland Cavaliers 127.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 95%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
220

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
7%
Won by 1-3
3%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
15%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
49%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 220.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over21% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jordan PooleSG
20.5
Kyle KuzmaPF
15.2
Alex SarrC
13.0
Malcolm BrogdonPG
12.7
Bilal CoulibalySF
12.3
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
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