MIL125
FINAL
119DET
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
44-34
125
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
44-36
119
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 114.6 – Detroit Pistons 115.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 52%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bucks won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
244

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
47%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 244.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 240
30% over ✓70% under
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
26.1
Jaden IveySG
17.6
Tobias HarrisPF
13.7
Jalen DurenC
11.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.SG
11.0
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