SA114FINAL
111GS
San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability
FINAL
San Antonio Spurs
32-47
114
VS
Golden State Warriors
47-31
111
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
GS
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Will RichardOut
- Kristaps PorzingisOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 75%
ACTUAL RESULT
Spurs won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
225
Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
30%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
18%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 225.
O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
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