NO111
FINAL
136MIL
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
21-58
111
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
43-34
136
Model expected score: New Orleans Pelicans 110.4 – Milwaukee Bucks 120.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bucks won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
24%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 240
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
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