MIA111FINAL
119CHI
Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability
FINAL
Miami Heat
36-43
111
VS
Chicago Bulls
36-43
119
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
CHI
- Norman PowellDay-To-Day
- Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 52%
ACTUAL RESULT
Bulls won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
230
Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
51%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
14%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 230.
O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
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