SA109FINAL
120POR
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability
FINAL
San Antonio Spurs
32-45
109
VS
Portland Trail Blazers
34-44
120
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
POR
- Ja MorantOut
- Vit KrejciOut
- Shaedon SharpeOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Blazers 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
Blazers won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
229
Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
42%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 229.
O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anfernee SimonsSG
19.3
Shaedon SharpeSG
18.5
Deni AvdijaSF
16.9
Deandre AytonC
14.4
Jerami GrantPF
14.4
Follow Us