MIA124FINAL
103BOS
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability
FINAL
Miami Heat
34-41
124
VS
Boston Celtics
56-19
103
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
BOS
Nothing on the report.
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 75%
ACTUAL RESULT
Heat won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
227
Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
30%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
17%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.
O/U LINE 210
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 220
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
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