HOU148
FINAL
109PHX
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Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
47-25
148
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
35-39
109
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 115.1 – Phoenix Suns 113.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 39
COMBINED SCORE
257

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
55%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 257.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 240
27% over ✓73% under
O/U LINE 250
13% over ✓87% under
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen GreenSG
21.0
Alperen ŞengünC
19.1
Amen ThompsonSF
14.1
Fred VanVleetPG
14.1
Dillon BrooksSF
14.0
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantPF
26.6
Devin BookerSG
25.6
Bradley BealSG
17.0
Tyus JonesPG
10.2
Nick RichardsC
9.5
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