IND111
FINAL
132OKC
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Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
43-30
111
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
59-12
132
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 112.7 – Oklahoma City Thunder 120.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
243

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
18%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 243.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
37% over ✓63% under
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
20.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
18.6
Bennedict MathurinSF
16.1
Myles TurnerC
15.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.0
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
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