MIL117
FINAL
127DEN
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
38-31
117
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
45-28
127
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 115.3 – Denver Nuggets 117.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
244

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
43%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 244.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over ✓64% under
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
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