ATL114
FINAL
121HOU
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Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
34-35
114
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
45-25
121
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 113.6 – Houston Rockets 119.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
235

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 235.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 240
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
24.2
Jalen JohnsonSF
18.9
Dyson DanielsSG
14.1
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.4
Zaccharie RisacherSF
12.6
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen GreenSG
21.0
Alperen ŞengünC
19.1
Amen ThompsonSF
14.1
Fred VanVleetPG
14.1
Dillon BrooksSF
14.0
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