DAL113
FINAL
128NY
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Dallas Mavericks vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
35-36
113
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
44-25
128
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 112.4 – New York Knicks 118.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Knicks won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
241

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
33%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
14%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 241.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 240
32% over ✓68% under
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.1
Kyrie IrvingSG
24.7
Anthony DavisPF
20.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.7
Klay ThompsonSF
14.0
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
26.0
Karl-Anthony TownsC
24.4
OG AnunobyPF
18.0
Mikal BridgesSF
17.6
Josh HartSG
13.6
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