SA96
FINAL
122DET
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San Antonio Spurs vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
31-39
96
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
40-32
122
Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 114.1 – Detroit Pistons 118.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 26
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
37%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
26.1
Jaden IveySG
17.6
Tobias HarrisPF
13.7
Jalen DurenC
11.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.SG
11.0
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