BOS113
FINAL
95SAC
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Boston Celtics vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
52-19
113
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
35-35
95
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 116.6 – Sacramento Kings 113.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 18
COMBINED SCORE
208

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
58%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 208.

O/U LINE 210
86% over14% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
De'Aaron FoxPG
25.0
Zach LaVineSG
22.4
DeMar DeRozanSF
22.2
Domantas SabonisC
19.1
Malik MonkSG
17.2
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