CHI129
FINAL
119DEN
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Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
31-40
129
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
45-27
119
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 118.1 – Denver Nuggets 122.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bulls won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
248

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 248.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 230
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 250
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
15% over85% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
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