DAL120
FINAL
101BKN
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Dallas Mavericks vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
34-36
120
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
23-48
101
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 112.6 – Brooklyn Nets 113.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nets 50%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Mavericks won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
221

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
49%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 221.

O/U LINE 210
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 220
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.1
Kyrie IrvingSG
24.7
Anthony DavisPF
20.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.7
Klay ThompsonSF
14.0
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cam ThomasSG
24.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
18.8
Dennis SchröderPG
18.4
D'Angelo RussellPG
12.9
Keon JohnsonSG
10.6
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