SA123
FINAL
89TOR
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San Antonio Spurs vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
30-39
123
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
24-46
89
Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 114.9 – Toronto Raptors 115.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
TOR
  • Trayce Jackson-DavisDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
  • Nate BittleOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Spurs won by 34
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
48%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
RJ BarrettSF
21.1
Scottie BarnesPF
19.3
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.1
Jakob PoeltlC
14.5
Gradey DickSG
14.4
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