CLE112
FINAL
123PHX
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
56-13
112
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
33-37
123
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 118.8 – Phoenix Suns 116.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Suns won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
235

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
57%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 235.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantPF
26.6
Devin BookerSG
25.6
Bradley BealSG
17.0
Tyus JonesPG
10.2
Nick RichardsC
9.5
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