CHA106
FINAL
141OKC
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Charlotte Hornets vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
18-51
106
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
55-12
141
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 104.3 – Oklahoma City Thunder 120.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 91%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 35
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
13%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
37%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 230
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 240
21% over ✓79% under
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
LaMelo BallPG
25.2
Brandon MillerSF
21.0
Miles BridgesPF
20.3
Mark WilliamsC
15.3
Grant WilliamsPF
10.4
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
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