BKN99
FINAL
105IND
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Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
23-46
99
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
39-29
105
Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 110.0 – Indiana Pacers 116.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pacers 73%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pacers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
204

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 204.

O/U LINE 210
81% over19% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cam ThomasSG
24.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
18.8
Dennis SchröderPG
18.4
D'Angelo RussellPG
12.9
Keon JohnsonSG
10.6
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
20.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
18.6
Bennedict MathurinSF
16.1
Myles TurnerC
15.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.0
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